Poisson Betting Tool
Model match outcomes and scorelines from each team's expected goals.
How to Use This Calculator
- Enter the home side’s expected goals, drawn from your own analysis or from xG data
- Enter the away side’s expected goals
- Read off the probabilities for a home win, a draw, an away win, over/under 2.5, and BTTS
- Consult the scoreline probability grid for projections of specific final scores
Formula
Poisson Probability: P(k) = (λ^k × e^(-λ)) / k!
Where λ = expected goals, k = actual goals scored
Scoreline Probability = P(Home = h) × P(Away = a)
Assumes home and away goals are independent events.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the Poisson distribution apply to betting?
The Poisson distribution is a statistical framework for estimating the probability that a given number of events, in this case goals, occur within a fixed interval. Football bettors rely on it heavily to convert expected-goals averages into projected match scorelines.
Where do I get the expected goals figures?
Expected goals (xG) numbers are published by football statistics sites. As an alternative, you can work out a team’s average goals scored per game across its recent fixtures. More advanced approaches also factor in home advantage, the strength of the opposition, and current form.
Can I trust the Poisson model's accuracy?
The Poisson model offers a sensible baseline for football forecasting. Its chief weakness is the assumption that goals are independent events, which does not always hold true, for instance with momentum swings or red cards. It performs best for pre-match projections in leagues with steady scoring trends.
Which markets is Poisson suited to?
Poisson is applied most often to 1X2 (the match result), correct score, over/under goals, and both teams to score (BTTS) markets. It can likewise be adapted to Asian handicaps and to half-time/full-time forecasts.